Najmuddin Mubarak MR, Susandri Susandri, Ahmad Zamsuri

Geodetically-Enhanced Hybrid GRU with Adaptive Dropout and Dynamic L2 Regularization for Earthquake Parameter Prediction in Indonesia

Introduction

Geodetically-enhanced hybrid gru with adaptive dropout and dynamic l2 regularization for earthquake parameter prediction in indonesia. Novel geodetically-enhanced hybrid GRU model with adaptive dropout & dynamic L2 regularization improves earthquake prediction in Indonesia. Boosts accuracy & stability for seismic forecasting.

Abstract

Earthquake prediction remains challenging due to the nonlinear behavior and uncertainty of seismic activity. This study introduces a geodetically-enhanced hybrid GRU model integrating adaptive dropout and dynamic L2 regularization to improve robustness and accuracy in earthquake magnitude prediction. In addition to seismic sequence data, slip-rate values derived from scalar moment distribution were incorporated as a domain-informed feature to represent tectonic strain accumulation across Indonesia. The dataset consisted of BMKG records from 2010–2025 and was processed through outlier removal, normalization, temporal reshaping, and feature integration. The proposed model was evaluated against multiple deep learning baselines including CNN-1D, LSTM, standard GRU, Transformer-based models, and Neural ODE architectures. Performance assessment used RMSE, MAE, and R² metrics. The resulting hybrid GRU achieved improved predictive accuracy with an RMSE of 0.5176, MAE of 0.3973, and an R² score of 0.5997, outperforming both CNN-1D and standard GRU baselines. The integration of slip-rate features contributed to reduced prediction variance across tectonically active zones. These findings demonstrate that combining geodetic information with adaptive regularization strategies improves generalization and model stability for seismic forecasting. The approach offers potential applicability for rapid early-warning scenarios requiring low latency and reliable prediction accuracy.

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