Teuku Rizky Noviandy, Mohsina Patwekar, Faheem Patwekar, Rinaldi Idroes

An Interpretable Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Advanced Tumor Stages

Introduction

An interpretable machine learning framework for predicting advanced tumor stages. Predict advanced tumor stages using an interpretable machine learning framework. This study leverages ensemble models for accurate predictions, providing crucial insights for oncological diagnostics and clinical decision-making.

Abstract

Accurate identification of advanced tumor stages is essential for timely clinical decision-making and personalized treatment planning. This study proposes an explainable ensemble learning framework for predicting advanced tumor stage using a dataset containing 10,000 samples with 18 clinical and radiological features. Four machine learning models, namely Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, AdaBoost, and LightGBM, were evaluated using stratified train–test splits along with standard performance metrics. LightGBM achieved the highest performance, with an accuracy of 86.05% and an F1-score of 76.61%, outperforming linear and probabilistic classifiers. ROC–AUC and precision–recall analyses further confirmed the superior discriminative ability of ensemble methods. SHAP explainability techniques highlighted mitotic count, Ki-67 index, enhancement, and necrosis as the most influential predictors of advanced stage. The proposed framework demonstrates strong predictive capability and provides clinically interpretable insights, underscoring its potential as a decision-support tool in oncological diagnostics. Future work will involve external validation and integration of additional multimodal data to enhance generalizability.

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