Gede Ryan Arya Wardana

Prediction of Energy Crisis in Indonesia Through Simulation Models System Dynamic

Introduction

Prediction of energy crisis in indonesia through simulation models system dynamic. Predicting Indonesia's energy crisis by 2051 using system dynamic simulation models. Analyzes increasing energy consumption vs. limited production and suggests conservation.

Abstract

According to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (2016), the development of the times accompanied by an increase in the world's population, makes energy use also increase. Especially with the industrial revolution that triggers industrial growth in all sectors, making energy use also increase. The fulfillment of energy needs must be balanced with the availability of energy in an appropriate, integrated and sustainable manner in order to facilitate activities in all sectors of energy users, such as the household sector, transportation, industry, commercial, and others. The balance between energy supply and energy demand needs to be analyzed in order to give an idea of the impending energy crisis in Indonesia. The data used in this report is secondary data collected by literature study technique. The problem faced by Indonesia is that energy consumption is increasing, especially in the transportation sector, increasing to 15,000,000 terajoules in 2060, while energy production in Indonesia has increased which is not too significant. This resulted in an energy crisis. Judging from the simulation of the dynamic system approach, it is predicted that Indonesia will experience an energy crisis in 2051. In order to overcome the problem of the energy crisis in Indonesia, energy conservation is needed in various layers, both from the aspect of energy management and from the community.

Review

This paper tackles the critical and timely issue of Indonesia's impending energy crisis, employing a System Dynamics simulation approach to predict its onset and underlying drivers. The authors highlight the growing imbalance between energy supply and demand, particularly driven by soaring consumption in the transportation sector, and project that Indonesia will experience an energy crisis by 2051. This research is highly relevant for national planning and policy development, aiming to provide a forward-looking perspective on a challenge with significant implications for the country's economic stability and sustainable development. A notable strength of this work is its application of System Dynamics, a methodology well-suited for modeling complex, interconnected systems like national energy systems, enabling the exploration of feedback loops and long-term trends. By specifically identifying the transportation sector as a major contributor to increasing energy consumption, with a concrete projection of 15,000,000 terajoules by 2060, the study offers valuable targeted insight. The precise prediction of 2051 as the year for the energy crisis provides a clear, actionable benchmark for policymakers to consider when formulating preventative measures and energy management strategies. Despite its pertinent focus, the abstract raises several questions that would require comprehensive elaboration in the full paper. A significant concern is the reliance on data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (2016), which may be outdated for long-term projections extending to 2060, potentially affecting the accuracy and relevance of the simulation's outcomes. The abstract also lacks granular detail regarding the System Dynamics model's specific structure, key variables, underlying assumptions, and validation processes, making it challenging to fully assess the robustness and reliability of the predictions. Furthermore, while proposing "energy conservation" as a solution, the abstract does not indicate how the model might inform more specific, targeted, or effective policy recommendations beyond this general statement.

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